Gazprom is not Microsoft

Gazprom and Microsoft are two different animals. The European Commission cannot go after Gazprom the same way it went after Microsft because of the intense politicization of the antitrust investigation launched in September by the European Commission to determine whether Gazprom might be hindering competition.

The political overtone of the investigation makes it unlikely that the EU will impose fines. Fines would risk hurting ties with Russia, since Moscow would likely balk at accepting the penalties. In reaction to the EU investigation, Russia published a decree in September requiring government permission for various actions by companies operating in "strategic sectors," which was aimed at giving Gazprom legal cover in response to the EU investigation while also formalizing Kremlin oversight of the company .

The completion of the investigation is expected to take anywhere from six months to 18 months. The outcome will likely include mixed results, but on balance the Commission will be cautious in its judgment. The consequences are likely to be differentiated depending on the extent to which the proved anti-competitive practices hurt each country. Then, if Gazprom does not like the outcome, there is the option to appeal to the European Court of Justice- adding maybe another 12-18 months before a decision.

Sooner or later there will be some compromise and partial recognition of EU goals due to the highly interdependent relationship between the EU and Gazprom. Russia remains Europe's main supplier and Europe remains Russia's core market.